October 2019 Market Report
During one-month period to 30th September 2019, major equity markets registered reasonable gains. The FTSE ALL-World Index rose by 2.25% over the period, now up by 14.71% since the beginning of the year. The VIX index fell by 10.3% to end the period at 16.55. Fixed interest products displayed a mixed performance with riskier products outperforming conventional government stocks. Sterling was stronger while the Yen dropped, and the Chinese Renminbi stabilised versus the US. Commodities displayed a mixed price performance overall.
The European Central Bank continues to err on the cautious side regarding economic projections, Mario Draghi following up on his promise of further easing measures at the recent ECB meeting. At the time of writing Germany appears to be on the brink of a recession and calls for fiscal loosening are increasing. Very recently, some indicators e.g. unemployment dropping to a multiyear low, have suggested a degree of stabilisation Political events have featured ECB appointments along with further signs of discontent in Germany and France, renewed Spanish election speculation, renewed Austrian grouping and further Italian coalition division. US market watchers continued to grapple with ongoing tariff discussions (China, and prospectively Europe), Federal Budget concerns, Iranian sanctions, Venezuela, North Korean meeting stalemate and Trump’s personal issues (impeachment?). US economic data has indicated a solid consumer trend although relatively buoyant first quarter GDP growth figures did include a large element of inventory building and more recent official figures have been mixed. Corporate results/forward looking statements have taken on a more cautious tone, especially related to tariff developments (actual or rumoured). Official interest rates were reduced 25bp on July 31st to a range of 2.0%-2.25% much as expected and a further 25 bp in September. The accompanying statement left the door open for further adjustment. In the Far East, China flexed its muscles in response to Trump’s trade and other demands and anecdotal evidence points to a weakening economy. Recent data releases pointed to 6.0% quarterly GDP growth with risks growing to the downside.Hong Kong still very volatile. Japanese economic growth was downgraded slightly to 0.8%, mainly on a weaker trade performance. The recent Upper House election result confirmed the LDP current strong position while at the Bank of Japan meeting, the current easier fiscal stance was reconfirmed, although the scheduled October 1st VAT increase has been applied.
The UK continued to report somewhat mixed economic data with stable developments on the labour front but poor corporate investment , inflation a little higher than expected, weak relative GDP figures and deteriorating property sentiment, both residential (esp London) and commercial (especially retail).Business and market attention, both domestic and international, is clearly focussed on ongoing BREXIT deliberations under new Prime Minster ,Boris Johnson. Both the Chancellor and Bank of England Governor have made frequent references to the unsettling effects of any unsatisfactory Brexit outcome, as have a growing number of business leaders and independent academic bodies. The actual situation remains very fluid, and many options are still possible at the time of writing, including a time extension, while there remains a non-zero probability of a “no-deal”. Economic and corporate figures will inevitably be distorted over coming months, and it would not be a complete surprise if UK entered a technical recession by the end of the third quarter.
Aggregate world hard economic data continues to show 2019 expansion of around 3.0%, although forecasts of future growth continue to be reduced the leading independent international organizations. As well as slowing projections in the developed markets of USA, China and Europe, a number of developing economies are experiencing headwinds for a variety of reasons e.g. India and much of Latin America There appears to be a growing chorus of further action on the fiscal front e.g. infrastructure spending, as other instruments e.g. interest rates may have limited potential from current levels. Fluctuating currencies continued to play an important part in asset allocation decisions, sterling/yen being a recent example, while some emerging market currencies have been exceptionally volatile e.g. Turkey. Movements in the $/Yuan are also taking on increasing significance
Global Equities rose by 2.25% over September, the FTSE ALL World Index now showing a gain of 14.71% since the year end, albeit following the very weak last quarter of 2018. The UK broad and narrow market indices, both advanced by approx. 2.8% over the monthly period, lagging world equities in sterling adjusted terms by about 8%, since the beginning of 2019. Germany and Japan both showed the largest monthly moves rising by 4.1% and 5.1 % respectively while the NASDAQ, S&P and emerging markets lagged. The VIX index fell, reflecting a greater risk-taking mood to a level of 16.55 and down 34.89% since the beginning of the year. According to recent Morningstar figures, managed funds have delivered average performance of between 8% and 13% so far this year depending on risk category.
Apart from oil and gas, an obvious beneficiary of the Arabian oil facility damage, there were further signs of moves to more defensive “value” stocks in the area of telco’s, utilities etc and financial sectors also enjoyed above average gains, while consumer stocks declined in absolute and relative terms. Over the nine -month period, pharmaceuticals are showing an absolute gain of nearly 20% while the worst performing UK sectors, banks and telcos are still in negative territory.
Gilt prices rose marginally over the month, the 10-year UK yield standing at 0.39% currently. Other ten-year yields closed the month at US, 1.66%, Japan, -0.28%, and Germany, -0.52%. UK corporate bond prices fell slightly over the month, but more speculative grades showed yield declines/price gains. Floating rate bonds rose while the favoured convertible bond play advanced over 2.2%See my recommendations in preference shares, convertibles, corporate bonds, floating rate bonds etc. A list of my top thirty income ideas (many yielding around 6%) from over 10 different asset classes is available.
Sterling was the main mover amongst the major currencies during September advancing on speculation that a “no-deal” BREXIT could be averted by key October deadlines, while the yen fell in trade-weighted terms. Since the beginning of the year £/Yen has been one of the more volatile cross rates and illustrates the need for factoring the FX decision into the asset allocation process. See my note regarding various Japanese strategies.
A mixed month for commodities on global growth concerns and supply shocks. The Brent oil price advanced 2.0% over the month, largely as a result of the drone strike, while gold fell a little, and palladium soared in price terms, now up over 31.5% since the beginning of 2019.Soft commodities were generally firmer while iron ore jumped 8.6% after recent sharp falls.
Over the coming months, geo-political events and Central Bank actions/statements meeting, will continue to dominate news headlines and market sentiment, in my view. Third quarter earnings releases will also provide more colour and stock specific volatility. To some extent, the slower economic growth forecasts that are appearing, will inevitably lead to some scale-back in corporate profit projections, although there may be offsetting fiscal and monetary effects. With growing numbers of government bond yields in negative territory, calls for more fiscal action will intensify.
US watchers will continue to speculate on the timing and number of further interest rate moves during the 2019/2020 period while longer term Federal debt dynamics, election debate and trade” war” winners/losers (a moving target) will affect sentiment. Corporate earnings growth will be subject to even greater analysis after a buoyant 2018, amidst a growing list of obstacles. Additional discussions pertaining to North Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Trump’s own position(impeachment) could precipitate volatility in equities, commodities and currencies. In Japan market sentiment may be calmer after recent political and economic events although international events e.g. exchange rates and tariff developments, will affect equity direction. Economic data, has, if anything, been better than expected, a rare event now and a trade war with USA averted (for the time being). There is increasing speculation that China may announce more stimulative measures and key $/Yuan exchange rate levels are being watched closely. European investment mood will be tested by generally weakening economic figures and an increasingly unstable political backdrop.
At the time of writing, options such as revised Brexit deal (Ireland changes), caretaker government and Withdrawal Extension, No-deal (legal gymnastics), Second Referendum and General Election (after extension) all have nonzero probabilities. All these possibilities inevitably point to further political mayhem although there may be some economic/business relief in certain cases.
Hard economic data (especially final GDP, corporate investment, exports) and various sentiment/residential property indicators are expected to show that UK economic growth continues to be lack-lustre and any economic upgrade over current quarters appear extremely unlikely. The UK Treasury and the MPC have both produced rather negative economic medium-term projections, whatever the Brexit outcome! It is highly likely that near term quarterly figures (economic and corporate) will be distorted (both ways), and general asset price moves will be confused, in my view, by a mixture of currency development, political machinations, international perception and interest rate expectations.
In terms of current recommendations,
Depending on benchmark, and risk attitude, first considerations should be appropriate cash/hedging stance and the degree of asset diversification (asset class, individual investment and currency).
An increased weighting in absolute return, alternative income and other vehicles may be warranted as equity returns will become increasingly lower and more volatile and holding greater than usual cash balances may also be appropriate, including some outside sterling. Both equity and fixed interest selection should be very focussed. Apart from global equity drivers e.g. slowing economic and corporate growth and limited monetary response levers, there are many localised events e.g. Brexit, US elections, tariff discussions, political uncertainty, that could upset many bourses, still relatively close to recent record levels.
Full quarter report available to clients/subscribers and suggested portfolio strategy/individual recommendations will be available soon. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio, model pooled fund portfolios (cautious, balanced adventurous, income), 30 stock income lists, defensive list, hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased, as well as bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring.
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!
Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)
1st October 2019